FORUM ISAG / S&P – 4th Annual European Banks & Sovereigns Conference

Trade risk, tapering and Brexit ahead! Is this as good as it gets for advanced economies?

So far, 2017 feels like the calm before a brewing storm. As the post-war trend towards deeper globalization comes under threat, as QE tapering in Europe is becoming a question of when, rather than if, and as the road towards Brexit has now irrevocably been taken, how prepared are advanced economies to deal with these multiple and fundamental challenges?

Please join S&P Global Ratings and ISAG on Tuesday, 13th June 2017 at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Geneva to discuss the financial and credit risks, but also opportunities, as we move into a period of exceptional uncertainty.

Registration

Agenda:

09:00

Coffee & Registration

09:30

Welcome & Introduction
Pierre Gautier, Senior Director & Analytical Manager, Financial Services Ratings, S&P Global Ratings and
Emmanuel Ferry, President of ISAG, CIO, Banque Pâris Bertrand Sturdza S.A.

09:40

International Economic Outlook; Stronger Growth, Political Turbulence
Jean-Michel Six, Managing Director & Chief European Economist, S&P Global Ratings

10:00

The Outlook For Sovereign Ratings In Developed Markets: As Good As It Gets?
Frank Gill, Senior Director, Sovereign Ratings, S&P Global Ratings

10:30

Coffee Break

10:50

European Banks: Is The Glass Half Full Or Half Empty?
Pierre Gautier, Senior Director & Analytical Manager, Financial Services Ratings, S&P Global Ratings

11:10

Q&A Panel: Financial Markets And Ratings: Why Credit Fundamentals Still Matter In The Age Of Brexit, Nativism And QE
Opportunity to put your questions to the speakers

Moderated By:
Pierre Gautier, Senior Director & Analytical Manager, Financial Services Ratings, S&P Global Ratings

12:00

Networking Buffet Lunch

13:00

Close

ISAG Forum – Millennium Global Investments Ltd – August 2016

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Where do we stand in the process of emerging market adjustment and what are the implications for currencies?

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- Claire Dissaux – Managing Director – Head of Global Economics & Strategy
- François Oustry – Managing Director – Head of Investment Solutions Group
- Michael D. Huttman – Chairman


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Opportunities: Emerging market differentiation

Since the 2008 financial crisis, prospects for emerging economies have been downgraded and associated risks re-assessed by investors but in the meantime emerging market asset prices, in particular currencies, have adjusted to reflect structural challenges. To which extent does the currency adjustment now reflect underlying fundamentals, and what are therefore the opportunities for investors?

Emerging market economies face a lasting impact from the commodity price shock that creates huge transfers of income, along with reduced demand from developed economies, and pressure to reduce debt after years of strong foreign capital inflows.

The adjustment involves a variable combination of measures depending on the country that include: structural reforms, monetary and fiscal policy responses and exchange rate depreciation. In some economies, the exchange rate has been the primary tool used to absorb shocks and we believe there is now a case for differentiation in the final phase of adjustment. This should come through in the form of fiscal policy and structural reforms in a number of economies (eg. Mexico, India, Indonesia, Brazil…) whereas the exchange rate still has a role to play in other markets (eg. China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore…).

Risks: How can a systematic approach protect a fundamental view against unpleasant surprises?

Once fundamental views on emerging market currencies have been established through the discretionary investment process, in this case according to the theme of differentiation of ongoing emerging market adjustments, the degree of conviction attached to these views specified. It would be prudent then to:

1. Appreciate the timing and the intensity with which the currency manager can express this theme

2. Protect the medium-term view using a self-insurance mechanism against “bad surprises”

We will illustrate the approach on several emerging market currencies by showing that it is possible to develop effective dynamic hedging programmes using currency forward contracts by marrying implicit fundamental views taken from a discretionary portfolio with an option replication mechanism to withstand unpredictable shocks. We also show that the information contained in the momentum of currency option skews is a very good complement to the fundamental views.

Disclaimer

For information about this forum : Ms Claire Dissaux – t: +44 (0)20 7663 8900

Millennium Global Investments Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). There can be no assurance that professionals currently employed by Millennium will continue to be employed by Millennium or that past performance or success of any such professional is indicative of such professional’s future performance or success. This information is provided for indicative, educational and illustrational purposes only. This information is provided for information purposes, is intended for your use only and does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the products or services mentioned. The information provided is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision.

ISAG Forum | Independent Research Hub | Sylvain Chateau, Beyond Ratings | JUNE 2016

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Sylvain Chateau, Co-Founder and COO, Beyond Ratings

Sylvain started his career in strategy consulting at Booz Allen Hamilton and Roland Berger, and rapidly moved to the world of entrepreneurship. He developed Enerdata, a leading international provider of energy data and modeling for over 180 countries, for 10 years, as the CEO and major shareholder. He accompanied the management transition when the company was acquired. Sylvain is an ESSEC graduate.

ISAG FORUM – Independent research hub – 2016

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The Geneva Forum for Independent Research Experts

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2016 serie

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June 2016

FORUM BEYOND RATINGS - Sylvain Chateau, co-foundeur & COO

Beyond Ratings co-founder Sylvain Chateau will discuss on “How energy market and climate change issues can become game changer in sovereign risks ?

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May 2016

FORUM LONGVIEW ECONOMICS – Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist

Longview Economics CEO and Chief Market Strategis Chris Watling will discuss on global Macro, markets and asset allocation.

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January 2016

FORUM MRB – Macro Research Board – Peter Perkins, Founding Partner and Global Strategist

MRB strategists Peter Perkins (Global Strategy & Integrated Multi Asset AA) and Adam Wolfe (China & Asia Ex-Japan Equities)  will discuss the outlook for China and the U.S., and assess the inter-linkages between the two economies, as well as the implications for global capital markets.

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ISAG Forum – M. Chris Watling – May 2016

M. Chris Watling, CEO & Chief Market Strategist, LongView Economics

Global Macro, markets and asset allocation

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L’Agefi – 12th of May, 2016.

Citywire . Interview 12th of May, 2016

Chris Watling

Chris Watling is CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics – a company he founded in 2003. Longview Economics is an independent consultancy specializing in Market Timing,Macroeconomic, Thematic & Commodity research. Chris, in conjunction with colleagues, has developed a number of proprietary quantitative models that add precision to investment strategies and has pioneered the Longview “Old Normal” thesis regarding long secular cycles in global financial markets. Longview Economics has strong macro and quantitative views across all major asset classes and markets. Longview’s market timing research is focused on helping investors time markets on a short and medium term view and, invest for the long term. The thematic and commodity research offers in depth analysis of the key issues and themes facing the global economy. Prior to founding Longview Economics, Chris worked in the City (of London) for 12 years with Cazenove and then CAI Cheuvreux as a global economist and strategist. He also held roles as an Equity Analyst and Corporate Financier at Cazenove in the mid 1990s. Chris qualified as a Charted Accountant with KPMG and holds a Master’s & Bachelor’s degree in Economics. He regularly chairs & speaks a global investment conferences, is often quoted in the financial press and appears frequently on CNBC & other media outlets. He is also an Ambassador for HopeHIV – a charity which is about the generation of hope and which supports children and young people in sub-Saharan Africa affected by HIV/AIDS.

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